Dunning-Kruger. Lemon juice and a polaroid.
In 1995 a man robbed two banks in Pittsburgh with no mask and a smile for the cameras. He thought lemon juice made him invisible.
THE GIST ON DUNNING-KRUGER: "The Invisible Bank Robber"
Who was the invisible bank robber?
In 1995, a man robbed two banks in Pittsburgh in the middle of the afternoon. No mask, no disguise, and he smiled at the security cameras. When the police arrested him, he was astonished. "But I wore the juice," he said. He'd rubbed lemon juice on his face and thought he was invisible.
Lemon juice gets used as invisible ink. So McArthur Wheeler reasoned that if he put lemon juice on his face, he'd be invisible. And he checked: he rubbed it on, took a Polaroid of himself, and there was no face in the picture. He got 24 years in prison.
What did Dunning and Kruger find?
A psychologist called David Dunning read about the story and, with Justin Kruger, ran the study everyone now knows. What they found was much less ridiculous. They tested people on grammar, logic and telling jokes, and the worst performers thought they were slightly above average.
It got turned into the graph you've probably seen on the internet, with a mountain of stupid and a valley of despair.
Why can't we see our own mistakes?
The skill you need to do something well is the same skill you need to judge whether you did it well. Wheeler couldn't see what was wrong with his photograph, because seeing it required him to not be a total moron and realise he'd pointed the camera at the ceiling.
To give him his credit, he had a theory and he tested it, which is more than most of us do.
So who marks the homework?
The problem is, he marked his own homework. There's no other way to find out whether you're a good driver, good at your job or a good flatmate. You sit the test and you mark it yourself.
So when someone asks, why am I surrounded by idiots? Now you know why.
Do you rate your own skills fairly?
Your take. One tap, then see how everyone else voted.
Quick answers
Who was McArthur Wheeler?
A man who robbed two Pittsburgh banks in 1995 with no disguise, having rubbed lemon juice on his face because he thought it made him invisible. He got 24 years.
What did Dunning and Kruger test?
Grammar, logic and telling jokes. The worst performers thought they were slightly above average.
Why can't we judge our own skill?
The skill needed to do something well is the same skill needed to judge whether you did it well.
See you on the next one.
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